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Market outlook: equities

Exaggeration in both directions?

Just like the economic outlook, the outlook for the equity market is currently on a knife-edge: If the tariff increases are ultimately implemented in full, the market slump in the first half of April was more than justified – in the event of a US recession, new lows (below the April lows) could even be expected in the meantime.

But this is precisely what US president Trump and the Republicans cannot afford politically, so they should be highly motivated to escape from the mess they have created with compromises and significantly reduced tariffs. Their rowing back and promotion of "great deals" also points in this direction. Although a certain amount of economic damage has already been done, the equity market would probably overlook this if the tariff dispute were to be resolved quickly.

At the level of the April lows, it could therefore be argued that the market was too pessimistic, especially as many panic indicators had already reached extremes, which often triggers a strong recovery. In our view, however, the recovery has already gone too far: Stock indices, the majority of which are now trading above their levels prior to the tariff escalation (2 April 2025), leave no room for such "deals" not being feasible so quickly and successfully. Negotiations with China in particular are likely to be difficult, which Trump is clearly not yet sufficiently aware of, and it will take the pressure of significantly worse US economic data to get him to relent.

The short-term risk/reward ratio for the equity market now seems correspondingly poor after the rebound - we are downgrading equities to underweight vs. government bonds.

You can find more information on current market developments here!

As of May 2025

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What influence crises have on the equity markets?

Are equity investments still worthwhile? Crises have always had a direct influence on the equity markets. The video shows the crises over the past 50 years (using the global equity index MSCI World for example). As you can see, the equity market also rise again after crises. The quintessence: As an investor, you need staying power (i.e. a long-term investment horizon) and the necessary willingness to take risks when investing in equities.

Video: equity markets, crisis

Invest in equities – for example with equity funds!

Equities offer a good opportunity to build up long-term assets, diversify the portfolio and benefit from the development of various companies and sectors. This can be done easily and conveniently with the equity funds from Raiffeisen Capital Management. You also benefit from the know-how of our investment specialists. Find out more about our range of equity funds.

Equity funds

Raiffeisen Capital Management has more than 30 years of experience in managing equities. Choose from our wide range of equity funds.

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The funds Raiffeisen-Nachhaltigkeit-Aktien, Raiffeisen-HighTech-ESG-Aktien, Raiffeisen-SmartEnergy-ESG-Aktien, Raiffeisen-Health-and-Wellbeing-ESG-Aktien, Index-Selection-Equity, Raiffeisen-MegaTrends-ESG-Aktien and Raiffeisen-Zentraleuropa-ESG-Aktien exhibit elevated volatility, meaning that unit prices can move significantly higher or lower in short periods of time, and it is not possible to rule out loss of capital.

The following assessments of capital market prospects are a snapshot and may change at any time without notice or update. They represent a basic orientation framework and do not represent a generally binding view for fund and portfolio management. They also represent neither a binding forecast nor a recommendation for action for investors. The assessments of individual teams or fund managers may deviate significantly from this under certain circumstances. Similarly, the positioning of the investment funds, asset management products and portfolios may differ significantly from the market outlook mentioned on this page, for example due to different investment horizons, strategies and models used or discretionary decisions made by individual fund managers.